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Active Severe Weather Week: May 22-28

20 May

Next week is the second week of my two-week chasecation, and I don’t know that I could have planned it any better! It’s looking like a VERY active week, and could potentially have chasing opportunities every single day of the week. This is a result of a persistent trough bringing decent mid-level west/southwest flow all week, and a sharp dryline with a very moist, very unstable warm sector in place through the southern plains.

500mb winds aren’t forecast to be incredibly strong, which reduces the tornado threat somewhat, however the atmosphere will be very unstable, and directional shear will be nearly ideal almost every day of the week, with backed surface winds veering to WSW winds at 500mb. The advantage to the somewhat weak flow is that storms are going to be moving slow, which makes chasing so much easier!

Here are the SPC outlooks for the week:

Sunday
day3prob_0730

Monday
day4prob

Tuesday
day5prob

Thursday
day7prob

There will be chances on Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday as well, but there’s not enough information to outline a risk area yet. As you can see, I may never have to go very far from home, either! Every single day includes western Oklahoma into north-central Texas. Of course I will go to the spot I feel has the greatest chance for tornadoes.

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Posted by on May 20, 2016 in Forecasts

 

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