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Forecast: 5/8/16 SW Oklahoma

07 May

I’m starting to gain confidence in Sunday’s setup. This might actually be the best setup of the year so far, knock on wood. Something about SW Oklahoma…

The 00z NAM hasn’t changed much from the last few runs. This trough will finally eject and bring 60+ kts at 500 mb out of the southwest:

NAMSGP_500_spd_048

Moisture return is questionable, as dewpoints down in the Gulf of Mexico are currently only in the mid-to-upper 50’s, and we’re less than 48 hours from the event. The NAM is currently progging mid-to-upper 60’s in the warm sector, however, and a very sharp dryline:

NAMSGP_sfc_dewp_048

I don’t know the term for this, but I suspect the NAM is banking on moisture pooling, I guess as a result of ground moisture. Unless the low-level jet really ramps up all day tomorrow and overnight tomorrow night, I don’t see how we’re going to gain 10 degrees in this short of a time span. Nonetheless, this has been consistent on several runs, so we’ll see.

The result is a relatively narrow band of 3000 J/kg CAPE on the warm side of the dryline.

NAMSGP_con_sbcape_048

There is a little bit of veer-back-veer still showing up in the soundings, but it appears the backing doesn’t occur until above the 3m level. This is very similar to Elmer last year, which had S-curves, but they were in the upper levels.

We have a couple of advantages over 4/26/16 in a similar setup. The cap should hold until around 21z, the VBV is not as pronounced in low-levels, as mentioned above, and storm motions come off the dryline instead of nearly paralleling it. The result should be more isolated storms, and a better chance of tornadoes.

This sounding from SW Oklahoma also notes surface to 1km SRH at 227. On 4/26 those values were barely over 100. Surface to 6km shear is also higher, at 65 kts, thanks to a stronger 500 mb jet.

00_NAM_048_34.67,-99.13_severe_ml

I’ll definitely be chasing, as it’s only 3-4 hours from home. We’ll see how the models progress through tomorrow, and I’ll make my final target decision on Sunday morning. I’m planning on getting to the target area early on this one!

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Posted by on May 7, 2016 in Forecasts

 

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