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Forecast: 5/16/15

13 May

Earlier in the week it looked like there could be a big severe weather day shaping up for this coming Saturday. A chance at redemption for me from last weekend’s busted chase. Now that the NAM is within the range of this setup, things look much more dismal.

Friday is really looking like the better day, with 60s dewpoints reaching the Sand Hills of Nebraska, just east of the surface low, with big curved hodographs. I would much rather be able to chase on Friday. The biggest issue is that these storms will spawn overnight convection all along the dryline, which will continue into Saturday morning and early afternoon.

NAM_221_2015051312_F72_CREF_SURFACE

Just like last week, this will wipe out all of the instability in the warm sector, reducing the air temperature and dewpoint. I don’t expect there to be enough juice to get much done. This is reflected by the lack of sufficient CAPE the NAM shows later in the evening.

NAM_221_2015051312_F84_CAPE_SURFACE

There does appear to be a narrow corridor of 2000+ CAPE in western Oklahoma, extending into northern Texas, but the other issue is the S-curved hodographs. It is much more pronounced this week than it was last Saturday. Even if storms redevelop, we’re likely to see a QLCS, and not isolated supercells.

Unless a lot changes in the next 24-48 hours, it looks like I’ll be sitting this one out.

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1 Comment

Posted by on May 13, 2015 in Forecasts

 

One response to “Forecast: 5/16/15

  1. David Byers

    May 13, 2015 at 8:12 pm

    Thanks for the update

     

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