Well the 00z NAM is out, and it has changed quite a bit from the previous 2 runs, but that’s not necessarily bad! The good news is that it has moved the dryline east. Less driving for me is always a good thing. The triple point is near Hays, KS, and the dryline extends south and along the TX panhandle/OK border. The 500mb winds seem to get stronger and stronger with each run, so while that was somewhat of a question before, I don’t think there’s any question now, that trough will arrive in time and provide plenty of upper level support for these storms.
The big decision I’ll have to make is whether to target the triple point, or further south along the dryline. I probably won’t go for “Tail-end Charlie” as that will likely be too far south, and in fact could be outside of the good upper level support. I think it may be much like 4/14/12 in which you can pick your poison. Every storm that goes up will have a good chance of producing a tornado. I guessed right on that day, getting on the storm of the day, an EF-4 that was on the ground for an hour.
Things will likely change again between now and Saturday, so suffice it to say my only target at the moment is somewhere along the dryline!