The 2015 storm season is upon us! While I went out to intercept a little storm last week, I don’t consider that a real chase. It was a marginal setup, and the storm really wasn’t even severe, regardless of the severe thunderstorm warning it carried. Tomorrow, however, is the real deal! The tornado threat is still pretty limited, but there should be some good storms, and potentially large hail.
The biggest issue with this setup is the crashing cold front that will undercut the storms pretty quickly, leading to a linear squall line. My hope is that something can fire south of the cold front along the dryline right near the OK/TX border.
For now, that will be my target, which puts me in Wichita Falls, TX. If nothing fires that far south I’ll have to adjust north toward Lawton, OK. Other potential issues include a lack of strong low-level shear, and a borderline large dewpoint depression, depending on how high temperatures and dewpoints climb. Models are calling for temps in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low 60s. That’s okay, but much more than that and we’ll be looking at high bases, which reduces the chance of a tornado or two.
The tornado threat is not zero, but it’s not all that high, either. I’m just hoping for an isolated supercell off the dryline that can give me some good storm structure, some big hail, and maybe spit out a brief tornado. But I’ll just be happy to be on a real storm! Luckily tomorrow’s clinic schedule is pretty light, so I’m hoping to be off by 3 or 3:30 at the latest. It’ll take me 2 hours to get to Wichita Falls, so as long as initiation holds off until 5 or 5:30 I should be fine.