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FCST: 5/28/11 IL/MO

27 May

I’ve been pretty quiet on the blogging lately.  We haven’t had too many severe weather events around here, and even with what we’ve had, I have had my head buried in chemistry homework, and haven’t had much time to even look at models, let alone chase anything.  However, our first test is out of the way, and we have a 3-day weekend to get ahead on the new stuff, so I’ve got a little bit of time!  And it looks like I might have a decent chase day ahead!

Tomorrow there will be a somewhat stationary front draped across central/northern MO into central IL.  A weak impulse is expected to move ENE through the Ozark region tomorrow afternoon/evening.  In addition, AM convection should lay down some outflow boundaries which could serve as sources of list for surface based storms.  Parameters look amazing for supercells and tornadoes if storms can fire.  Bulk shear 0-500mb is at 40-50 kts in the warm sector, and hodographs are large clockwise curves.  Instability should be around 1000-2000 J/kg, depending on clearing out of the early convection.  If that convection hangs around too late, it could kill any chances for storms.  However, if storms initiate, all of the ingredients are there, plus storm motions will be extremely manageable at 10-15 kts.

As of right now I’m planning to head toward St. Louis somewhere around lunch time.  Of course I will analyze conditions and the models in the morning to determine the best spot to be.  It looks as though central MO may actually be a little better, however the terrain there is not very favorable for chasing, nor do I want to go quite that far.

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Posted by on May 27, 2011 in Forecasts

 

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