The 00z NAM is out, and it is looking much better than the 18z NAM. Although CAPE has been reduced, it is still above 1000 J/kg, which should be more than enough considering 700 mb temps are around 5 degrees C. Bulk shear is plentiful. Hodographs aren’t fantastic, but still show some clockwise curving conducive to tornadoes. The surface low is now moved into central IL by 00z, which is great for me as I won’t have to travel as far, and the warm front is further north, which means much better chasing terrain. Cap is no longer an issue, as only a weak cap will remain by 00z. We should see a CU field begin building around 21z, and initiation 1-2 hours later. This is by far the best local setup I have chased, and might be the best setup anywhere that I have chased. I’m going to set a preliminary target of Taylorville, IL. Of course I’ll monitor conditions tomorrow and adjust if necessary.
FCST (2): 4/19/11 IL/IN