I’m trying not to get too excited for this one, but things are really lining up for a significant tornado outbreak across parts of MO, IL, and IN on Tuesday evening/night. A warm front with a steep temperature gradient will cross the three states when a strong LLJ pushes it north throughout the day. A low will move from west central MO to the N/E through the day, and an associated shortwave will move through eastern MO/western IL in the evening to initiate convection. Curved hodographs should support supercell structures, at least with the earlier convection, with a threat for large hail and significant tornadoes. 0-1km EHI values above 3.0 for eastern MO, central IL, and west central IN at 00z.
I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on this one, and with Tuesdays generally being light days at work, I should be off early enough to have time to analyze data before chasing this one!