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FCST: 6/19/10

19 Jun

Just took a brief look at the models, and setting my imaginary target at Beaver City, NE.  Questionable setup today as far as tornado potential is concerned.  I would like further south into Kansas, however CIN is a bit high, and LCL’s are high.  Of course if I were chasing I would be monitoring the satellite all day.  As of now, it looks like an OFB may head further east of my target, however I’m thinking the dryline bulge in NW Kansas will be the focus of the stronger initiation.  I’d also look at surface data and be sure to stay north of the warm front.

UPDATE 5pm EDT: Looking at the current models, still looking like the KS/NE border in the central portion of the states is the spot where storms will develop.  If I were in Beaver City, I would stay put.  No need to move anywhere just yet.  Would simply monitor the sky and the satellite images for towering CU.  SPC has released a MCD for this area, and a Tornado Watch is likely within the next couple hours.  Storms are expected to fire between 23z-0z, or 6-7pm CDT.

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Posted by on June 19, 2010 in Forecasts

 

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