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Forecast: Today 6/18/10

18 Jun

There is some disagreement between the NAM and the RUC as to how this evenings storms will play out.  I’m going to put more emphasis on the RUC however, since it is the most up to date.  This is a tough call now as the ongoing convection in central Iowa is going to play a major role in the timing and placement of initiation.  The SPC outlook shows the greatest tornado threat in central to north central Wisconsin as a 10% swath, with the 5% swath extending into western Iowa, and even into northwestern Illinois.  14z RUC shows little to no sfc-500mb bulk shear in southern Iowa this evening, instead focusing the greatest combination of CAPE and shear in the northeastern tip of Iowa, and moving into southern Wisconsin.  0-1km EHI in this area is up to 6.0!  In addition, the area above 3.0 extends well into southwestern Wisconsin.  Based on this data, as of right now if I were chasing I would setup in Waukon, IA.  The road network in this area sucks!  Visibility is anywhere from poor to good depending on your location.  We’ll see how it pans out!

UPDATE 4pm EDT: There is now an outflow boundary from am convection along southern IA and slowly moving N.  There is also a cold front moving into NW Iowa.  If I were positioned up in NE Iowa attm, I would be heading further south and west towards Des Moines and expect initiation along the outflow boundary ahead of the cold front just south of Des Moines.  New target: Cumming, IA.

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Posted by on June 18, 2010 in Forecasts

 

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